Childhood Transitions Between Weight Status Categories: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions targeting childhood excess weight requires estimates of the hazards of transitioning between weight status categories. Current estimates are based on studies characterized by insufficient sample sizes, a lack of national representativeness, and untested assumptions. OBJECTIVES: We sought to (1) estimate transition probabilities and hazard ratios for transitioning between childhood weight status categories, (2) test the validity of the underlying assumption in the literature that transitions between childhood bodyweight categories are time-homogeneous, (3) account for complex sampling procedures when deriving nationally representative transition estimates, and (4) explore the impact of child, maternal, and sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: We applied a multistate transition modeling approach accounting for complex survey design to UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) data to predict transition probabilities and hazard ratios for weight status movements for children aged 3-17. Surveys were conducted at ages 3 (wave 2 in 2004), 5 (wave 3 in 2006), 7 (wave 4 in 2008), 11 (wave 5 in 2012), 14 (wave 6 in 2015), and 17 (wave 7 in 2018) years. We derived datasets that included repeated body mass index measurements across waves after excluding multiple births and children with missing or implausible bodyweight records. To account for the stratified cluster sample design of the MCS, we incorporated survey weights and jackknife replicates of survey weights. Using a validation dataset from the MCS, we tested the validity of our models. Finally, we estimated the relationships between state transitions and child, maternal, and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: The datasets for our primary analysis consisted of 10,399 children for waves 2-3, 10,729 for waves 3-4, 9685 for waves 4-5, 8593 for waves 5-6, and 7085 for waves 6-7. All datasets consisted of roughly equal splits of boys and girls. Under the assumption of time-heterogeneous transition rates (our base-case model), younger children (ages 3-5 and 5-7 years) had significantly higher annual transition probabilities of moving from healthy weight to overweight (0.033, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.026-0.041, and 0.027, 95% CI 0.021-0.033, respectively) compared to older children (0.015, 95% CI 0.012-0.018, at ages 7-11; 0.018, 95% CI 0.013-0.023, at ages 11-14; and 0.018, 95% CI 0.013-0.025 at ages 14-17 years). However, the resolution of unhealthy weight was more strongly age-dependent than transitions from healthy weight to non-healthy weight states. Transition hazards differed by child, maternal, and sociodemographic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our models generated estimates of bodyweight status transitions in a representative UK childhood population. Compared to our scenario models (i.e., time-homogeneous transition rates), our base-case model fits the observed data best, indicating a non-time-homogeneous pattern in transitions between bodyweight categories during childhood. Transition hazards varied significantly by age and across subpopulations, suggesting that conducting subgroup-specific cost-effectiveness analyses of childhood weight management interventions will optimize decision-making.

Pre-existing musculoskeletal pain and its association with mortality in newly diagnosed co-morbid conditions: an electronic health record cohort study.

Objective: Musculoskeletal pain is a common risk factor for co-morbid conditions and might increase the risk of poor outcomes. The objective was to determine whether patients with pre-existing musculoskeletal pain have an increased risk for mortality following a new diagnosis of a co-morbid condition. Methods: Patients aged ≥45 years with a new diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke, cancer, dementia or pneumonia recorded in a UK electronic primary care database linked to hospital and mortality records were examined. The association of mortality with musculoskeletal pain (inflammatory conditions, OA and regional pain) was determined. Results: The sample size varied from 128 649 (stroke) to 406 289 (cancer) by cohort, with 22-31% having pre-existing musculoskeletal conditions. In the ACS cohort, there was a higher rate of mortality for all musculoskeletal types. There were also higher unadjusted mortality rates in patients with inflammatory arthritis compared with those without musculoskeletal pain in the stroke, cancer and dementia cohorts and for patients with OA in the stroke and cancer cohorts. After adjustment for the number of prescribed medications and age, the increased risk of mortality remained only for patients with inflammatory arthritis in the ACS cohort (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.07; 95% CI 1.03, 1.10). Conclusion: Older adults with inflammatory arthritis and OA have increased risk of mortality when they develop a new condition, which seems to be related to the prescription of multiple medicines. Pre-existing musculoskeletal pain is an indicator of a complex patient who is at risk of poorer outcomes at the onset of new illnesses.

Estimating the direct healthcare utilization and cost of musculoskeletal pain among people with comorbidity: a retrospective electronic health record study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of pre-existing painful musculoskeletal conditions on healthcare utilization and costs among patients with five common conditions: acute coronary syndrome (ACS), stroke, cancer, dementia and pneumonia. METHODS: Using primary and secondary care services data from electronic health records, a negative binomial regression model was used to compare resource use while a two-part model was used to compare costs across the five conditions, between those with and without a pre-existing musculoskeletal pain. RESULTS: The study included 760,792 patients (144,870 with ACS, 121,208 with stroke, 231,702 with cancer, 134,638 with dementia, and 128,374 with pneumonia) in the complete case analysis. Pre-existing musculoskeletal pain had an incident rate ratio of above one for most healthcare resources over the follow-up period and an adjusted additional mean cumulative total healthcare costs per patient of £674.59 (95%CI 570.30 to 778.87) for ACS; £613.34 (95%CI 496.87 to 729.82) for stroke; £459.26 (95%CI 376.60 to 541.91) for cancer; and £766.23 (95%CI 655.06 to 877.39) for dementia over five years after diagnosis; and £200.85 (95%CI 104.16 to 297.55) for pneumonia over one year after diagnosis compared to those without musculoskeletal pain. CONCLUSION: This study highlights that individuals with painful musculoskeletal conditions have higher healthcare utiliszation and costs than those without painful musculoskeletal conditions. Given the high occurrence of musculoskeletal pain in patients with other conditions, effective management strategies are needed to reduce the burden on healthcare resources.

CARE: Protocol of a randomised trial evaluating the feasibility of preoperative intentional weight loss to support postoperative recovery in patients with excess weight and colorectal cancer.

AIM: Excess weight increases the risk of morbidity following colorectal cancer surgery. Weight loss may improve morbidity, but it is uncertain whether patients can follow an intensive weight loss intervention while waiting for surgery and there are concerns about muscle mass loss. The aim of this trial is to assess the feasibility of intentional weight loss in this setting and determine progression to a definitive trial. METHODS: CARE is a prospectively registered, multicentre, feasibility, parallel, randomised controlled trial with embedded evaluation and optimisation of the recruitment process. Participants with excess weight awaiting curative colorectal resection for cancer are randomised 1:1 to care as usual or a low-energy nutritionally-replete total diet replacement programme with weekly remote behavioural support by a dietitian. Progression criteria will be based on the recruitment, engagement, adherence, and retention rates. Data will be collected on the 30-day postoperative morbidity, the typical primary outcome of prehabilitation trials. Secondary outcomes will include, among others, length of hospital stay, health-related quality of life, and body composition. Qualitative interviews will be used to understand patients' experiences of and attitudes towards trial participation and intervention engagement and adherence. CONCLUSION: CARE will evaluate the feasibility of intensive intentional weight loss as prehabilitation before colorectal cancer surgery. The results will determine the planning of a definitive trial.

A qualitative study of health workers' perspectives on malaria case identification and management among pregnant women in Savelugu Municipality, Ghana.

Despite successes in malaria control interventions over the past two decades, malaria remains a major public health concern. Over 125 million women live in endemic areas and experience adverse pregnancy outcomes due to malaria. Understanding health workers' perspectives on malaria identification and management is important to informing policy changes on the control and eradication of the disease. This study explored the perspectives of health workers on malaria case identification and management among pregnant women in Savelugu Municipality, Ghana. A qualitative study with a phenomenology design was conducted among participants. Participants were purposively selected and interviewed using a semi-structured interview guide. Thematic analysis was performed and the results were presented as themes and sub-themes. Four themes and eight sub-themes regarding case identification and management of malaria in pregnancy were identified including malaria case identification training (trained and untrained), identification approach (signs/symptoms and routine laboratory test), diagnostic tools (rapid diagnostic test and microscopy) and management options. It revealed that attending malaria training programs was generally optional. Some of the participants had not undergone any refresher training for malaria identification after their formal training at health institutions. Participants identified malaria by its signs and symptoms. However, they often referred clients for routine laboratory tests for confirmation. When malaria is confirmed in pregnancy, quinine is used for first trimester treatment, while Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies are prescribed after the first trimester. Clindamycin was not used in the first trimester treatment. This study found that training programs were optional for health workers. Some participants have not received refresher training after graduating from health institutions. Treatment of confirmed cases did not include clindamycin for first trimester malaria infections. Malaria refresher training programs should be made mandatory for health workers. Every suspected case should be confirmed using Rapid Diagnostic Test or microscopy before treatment.

Musculoskeletal pain and its impact on prognosis following acute coronary syndrome or stroke: A linked electronic health record cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Musculoskeletal painful conditions are a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but less is known about whether musculoskeletal pain also worsens prognosis from CVD. The objective was to determine whether patients with musculoskeletal pain have poorer prognosis following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or stroke. METHODS: The study utilised UK electronic primary care records (CPRD Aurum) with linkage to hospital and mortality records. Patients aged ≥45 years admitted to hospital with incident ACS/stroke were categorised by healthcare use for musculoskeletal pain (inflammatory conditions, osteoarthritis [OA], and regional pain) based on primary care consultations in the prior 24 months. Outcomes included mortality, length of stay, readmission and management of index condition (ACS/stroke). RESULTS: There were 171,670 patients with incident ACS and 138,512 with stroke; 30% consulted for musculoskeletal pain prior to ACS/stroke and these patients had more comorbidity than those without musculoskeletal pain. Rates of mortality and readmission, and length of stay were higher in those with musculoskeletal pain, particularly OA and inflammatory conditions, in ACS. Readmission was also higher for patients with musculoskeletal pain in stroke. However, increased risks associated with musculoskeletal pain did not remain after adjustment for age and polypharmacy. Inflammatory conditions were associated with increased likelihood of prescriptions for dual anti-platelets (ACS only) and anti-coagulants. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with musculoskeletal pain have higher rates of poor outcome from ACS which relates to being older but also increased polypharmacy. The high rates of comorbidity including polypharmacy highlight the complexity of patients with musculoskeletal pain who have new onset ACS/stroke.

Supportive Self-Management Program for People With Chronic Headaches and Migraine: A Randomized Controlled Trial and Economic Evaluation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Chronic headache disorders are a major cause of pain and disability. Education and supportive self-management approaches could reduce the burden of headache disability. We tested the effectiveness of a group educational and supportive self-management program for people living with chronic headaches. METHODS: This was a pragmatic randomized controlled trial. Participants were aged 18 years or older with chronic migraine or chronic tension-type headache, with or without medication overuse headache. We primarily recruited from general practices. Participants were assigned to either a 2-day group education and self-management program, a one-to-one nurse interview, and telephone support or to usual care plus relaxation material. The primary outcome was headache related-quality of life using the Headache Impact Test (HIT)-6 at 12 months. The primary analysis used intention-to-treat principles for participants with migraine and both baseline and 12-month HIT-6 data. RESULTS: Between April 2017 and March 2019, we randomized 736 participants. Because only 9 participants just had tension-type headache, our main analyses were on the 727 participants with migraine. Of them, 376 were allocated to the self-management intervention and 351 to usual care. Data from 586 (81%) participants were analyzed for primary outcome. There was no between-group difference in HIT-6 (adjusted mean difference = -0.3, 95% CI -1.23 to 0.67) or headache days (0.9, 95% CI -0.29 to 2.05) at 12 months. The Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study intervention generated incremental adjusted costs of £268 (95% CI, £176-£377) (USD383 [95% CI USD252-USD539]) and incremental adjusted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 0.031 (95% CI -0.005 to 0.063). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £8,617 (USD12,322) per QALY gained. DISCUSSION: These findings conclusively show a lack of benefit for quality of life or monthly headache days from a brief group education and supportive self-management program for people living with chronic migraine or chronic tension-type headache with episodic migraine. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: Registered on the International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number registry, ISRCTN79708100 16th December 2015 doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN79708100. The first enrollment was April 24, 2017. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that a brief group education and self-management program does not increase the probability of improvement in headache-related quality of life in people with chronic migraine.

Mapping between headache specific and generic preference-based health-related quality of life measures.

BACKGROUND: The Headache Impact Test (HIT-6) and the Chronic Headache Questionnaire (CH-QLQ) measure headache-related quality of life but are not preference-based and therefore cannot be used to generate health utilities for cost-effectiveness analyses. There are currently no established algorithms for mapping between the HIT-6 or CH-QLQ and preference-based health-related quality-of-life measures for chronic headache population. METHODS: We developed algorithms for generating EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D utilities from the HIT-6 and the CHQLQ using both direct and response mapping approaches. A multi-stage model selection process was used to assess the predictive accuracy of the models. The estimated mapping algorithms were derived to generate UK tariffs and was validated using the Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study (CHESS) trial dataset. RESULTS: Several models were developed that reasonably accurately predict health utilities in this context. The best performing model for predicting EQ-5D-5L utility scores from the HIT-6 scores was a Censored Least Absolute Deviations (CLAD) (1) model that only included the HIT-6 score as the covariate (mean squared error (MSE) 0.0550). The selected model for CH-QLQ to EQ-5D-5L was the CLAD (3) model that included CH-QLQ summary scores, age, and gender, squared terms and interaction terms as covariates (MSE 0.0583). The best performing model for predicting SF-6D utility scores from the HIT-6 scores was the CLAD (2) model that included the HIT-6 score and age and gender as covariates (MSE 0.0102). The selected model for CH-QLQ to SF-6D was the OLS (2) model that included CH-QLQ summary scores, age, and gender as covariates (MSE 0.0086). CONCLUSION: The developed algorithms enable the estimation of EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D utilities from two headache-specific questionnaires where preference-based health-related quality of life data are missing. However, further work is needed to help define the best approach to measuring health utilities in headache studies.

Location of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests and automated external defibrillators in relation to schools in an English ambulance service region.

Introduction: This study sought to identify the availability of automated external defibrillators (AEDs) in schools in the region served by West Midlands Ambulance Service University NHS Trust (WMAS), United Kingdom, and the number of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) that occurred at or near to schools. A secondary aim was to explore the cost effectiveness of school-based defibrillators. Methods: This observational study used data from the national registry for OHCA (University of Warwick) to identify cases occurring at or near schools between January 2014 and December 2016 in WMAS region (n = 11,399). A school survey (n = 2,453) was carried out in September 2017 to determine the presence of AEDs and their registration status with WMAS. Geographical Information System mapping software identified OHCAs occurring within a 300-metre radius of a school. An economic analysis calculated the cost effectiveness of school-based AEDs. Results: A total of 39 (0.34%) of all OHCAs occurred in schools, although 4,250 (37.3%) of OHCAs in the region were estimated to have occurred within 300 metres of a school. Of 323 school survey responses, 184 (57%) had an AED present, of which 24 (13.0%) were available 24 h/day. Economic modelling of a school-based AED programme showed additional quality-adjusted life years (QALY) of 0.26 over the lifetime of cardiac arrest survivors compared with no AED programme. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £8,916 per QALY gained. Conclusion: Cardiac arrests in schools are rare. Registering AEDs with local Emergency Medical Services and improving their accessibility within their local community would increase their utility.

Economic costs and health utility values associated with extremely preterm birth: Evidence from the EPICure2 cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is associated with adverse health and developmental sequelae that impose a burden on finite resources and significant challenges for individuals, families and societies. OBJECTIVES: To estimate economic outcomes at age 11 associated with extremely preterm birth using evidence from a whole population study (EPICure2 study). METHODS: The study population comprised a sample of children born at ≤26 completed weeks of gestation during 2006 in England (n = 200) and a comparison group of classmates born at term (n = 143). Societal costs were estimated using parent and teacher reports of service utilisation, and valuations of work losses and additional care costs to families. Utility scores for the Health Utilities Index Mark 2 (HUI2) and Mark 3 (HUI3) were generated using UK and Canadian value sets. Generalised linear regression was used to estimate the impact of extremely preterm birth on societal costs and utility scores. RESULTS: Unadjusted mean societal costs that excluded provision of special educational support in mainstream schools during the 11th year after birth were £6536 for the extremely preterm group and £3275 for their classmates, generating a difference of £3262 (95% confidence interval [CI] £1912, £5543). The mean adjusted cost difference was £2916 (95% CI £1609, £4224), including special educational needs provision in mainstream schools increased the adjusted cost difference to £4772 (95% CI £3166, £6378). Compared with birth at term, extremely preterm birth generated mean-adjusted utility decrements ranging from 0.13 (95% CI 0.09, 0.18) based on the UK HUI2 statistical inference tariff to 0.28 (95% CI 0.18, 0.37) based on the Canadian HUI3 tariff. CONCLUSIONS: The adverse economic impact of extremely preterm birth persists into late childhood. Further longitudinal studies conducted from multiple perspectives are needed to understand the magnitude, trajectory and underpinning mechanisms of economic outcomes following extremely preterm birth.

Arthroscopic hip surgery compared with personalised hip therapy in people over 16 years old with femoroacetabular impingement syndrome: UK FASHIoN RCT.

BACKGROUND: Femoroacetabular impingement syndrome is an important cause of hip pain in young adults. It can be treated by arthroscopic hip surgery or with physiotherapist-led conservative care. OBJECTIVE: To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of hip arthroscopy with best conservative care. DESIGN: The UK FASHIoN (full trial of arthroscopic surgery for hip impingement compared with non-operative care) trial was a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial that was carried out at 23 NHS hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were included if they had femoroacetabular impingement, were aged ≥ 16 years old, had hip pain with radiographic features of cam or pincer morphology (but no osteoarthritis) and were believed to be likely to benefit from hip arthroscopy. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomly allocated (1 : 1) to receive hip arthroscopy followed by postoperative physiotherapy, or personalised hip therapy (i.e. an individualised physiotherapist-led programme of conservative care). Randomisation was stratified by impingement type and recruiting centre using a central telephone randomisation service. Outcome assessment and analysis were masked. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was hip-related quality of life, measured by the patient-reported International Hip Outcome Tool (iHOT-33) 12 months after randomisation, and analysed by intention to treat. RESULTS: Between July 2012 and July 2016, 648 eligible patients were identified and 348 participants were recruited. In total, 171 participants were allocated to receive hip arthroscopy and 177 participants were allocated to receive personalised hip therapy. Three further patients were excluded from the trial after randomisation because they did not meet the eligibility criteria. Follow-up at the primary outcome assessment was 92% (N = 319; hip arthroscopy, n = 157; personalised hip therapy, n = 162). At 12 months, mean International Hip Outcome Tool (iHOT-33) score had improved from 39.2 (standard deviation 20.9) points to 58.8 (standard deviation 27.2) points for participants in the hip arthroscopy group, and from 35.6 (standard deviation 18.2) points to 49.7 (standard deviation 25.5) points for participants in personalised hip therapy group. In the primary analysis, the mean difference in International Hip Outcome Tool scores, adjusted for impingement type, sex, baseline International Hip Outcome Tool score and centre, was 6.8 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 12.0) points in favour of hip arthroscopy (p = 0.0093). This estimate of treatment effect exceeded the minimum clinically important difference (6.1 points). Five (83%) of six serious adverse events in the hip arthroscopy group were related to treatment and one serious adverse event in the personalised hip therapy group was not. Thirty-eight (24%) personalised hip therapy patients chose to have hip arthroscopy between 1 and 3 years after randomisation. Nineteen (12%) hip arthroscopy patients had a revision arthroscopy. Eleven (7%) personalised hip therapy patients and three (2%) hip arthroscopy patients had a hip replacement within 3 years. LIMITATIONS: Study participants and treating clinicians were not blinded to the intervention arm. Delays were encountered in participants accessing treatment, particularly surgery. Follow-up lasted for 3 years. CONCLUSION: Hip arthroscopy and personalised hip therapy both improved hip-related quality of life for patients with femoroacetabular impingement syndrome. Hip arthroscopy led to a greater improvement in quality of life than personalised hip therapy, and this difference was clinically significant at 12 months. This study does not demonstrate cost-effectiveness of hip arthroscopy compared with personalised hip therapy within the first 12 months. Further follow-up will reveal whether or not the clinical benefits of hip arthroscopy are maintained and whether or not it is cost-effective in the long term. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN64081839. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 16. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

In some people, the ball and the socket of the hip joint develop so that they do not fit together properly. This is called hip impingement, and is an important cause of hip and groin pain in young and middle-aged adults. Treatments include physiotherapy and surgery. Physiotherapy typically involves a programme of 6­10 outpatient consultations that aim to strengthen the muscles around the hip: we called this personalised hip therapy. Surgery can be carried out by a keyhole operation, called a hip arthroscopy, which aims to reshape the hip to prevent impingement. Surgery is normally followed by some physiotherapy. We performed a research study to compare the results of hip arthroscopy and personalised hip therapy in people with hip impingement. A total of 348 people with painful hip impingement in 23 hospitals in the UK agreed to take part. About half were treated with hip arthroscopy and half with personalised hip therapy. We used questionnaires to ask participants about pain in the hip and their ability to do everyday things at 6 months and 1 year after entering the study. At 2 and 3 years, we asked if patients required any additional treatments. We found that both groups improved, but those treated with hip arthroscopy improved a moderate amount more than those treated with personalised hip therapy. However, these improvements were not cost-effective compared with personalised hip therapy at 1 year. We need to see whether or not this difference continues after several years, but the results, so far, suggest that if a person has painful hip impingement, then hip arthroscopy offers greater improvements than personalised hip therapy.

Cycle threshold values are inversely associated with poorer outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a prospective, observational cohort study conducted at a UK tertiary hospital.

This single-centre observational study demonstrated that lower cycle threshold (Ct) values (indicating higher viral loads) on admission to hospital were associated with poorer outcomes in unvaccinated, hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Demographic and outcome data were collected prospectively for all adult patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 on admission to the University Hospitals North Midlands NHS Trust between 1 February and 1 July 2020. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were obtained, and a valid Ct value was determined for all patients using the Viasure reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay, validated by Public Health England, on admission to hospital. Multi-variable logistic regression results based on data from 618 individuals demonstrated a significant inverse relationship between the odds of death and Ct values (adjusted odds ratio 0.95, 95% confidence interval 0.92-0.98, P=0.001). The association remained highly significant after adjusting for known clinical risk factors for COVID-19.

Measuring health-related quality of life in chronic headache: A comparative evaluation of the Chronic Headache Quality of Life Questionnaire and Headache Impact Test (HIT-6).

OBJECTIVE: To compare the quality and acceptability of a new headache-specific patient-reported measure, the Chronic Headache Quality of Life Questionnaire (CHQLQ) with the six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), in people meeting an epidemiological definition of chronic headaches. METHODS: Participants in the feasibility stage of the Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study (CHESS) (n = 130) completed measures three times during a 12-week prospective cohort study. Data quality, measurement acceptability, reliability, validity, responsiveness to change, and score interpretation were determined. Semi-structured cognitive interviews explored measurement relevance, acceptability, clarity, and comprehensiveness. RESULTS: Both measures were well completed with few missing items. The CHQLQ's inclusion of emotional wellbeing items increased its relevance to participant's experience of chronic headache. End effects were present at item level only for both measures. Structural assessment supported the three and one-factor solutions of the CHQLQ and HIT-6, respectively. Both the CHQLQ (range 0.87 to 0.94) and HIT-6 (0.90) were internally consistent, with acceptable temporal stability over 2 weeks (CHQLQ range 0.74 to 0.80; HIT-6 0.86). Both measures responded to change in headache-specific health at 12 weeks (CHQLQ smallest detectable change (improvement) range 3 to 5; HIT-6 2.1). CONCLUSIONS: While both measures are structurally valid, internally consistent, temporally stable, and responsive to change, the CHQLQ has greater relevance to the patient experience of chronic headache.Trial registration number: ISRCTN79708100. Registered 16th December 2015, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN79708100.

Adrenaline to improve survival in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: the PARAMEDIC2 RCT.

BACKGROUND: Adrenaline has been used as a treatment for cardiac arrest for many years, despite uncertainty about its effects on long-term outcomes and concerns that it may cause worse neurological outcomes. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to evaluate the effects of adrenaline on survival and neurological outcomes, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of adrenaline use. DESIGN: This was a pragmatic, randomised, allocation-concealed, placebo-controlled, parallel-group superiority trial and economic evaluation. Costs are expressed in Great British pounds and reported in 2016/17 prices. SETTING: This trial was set in five NHS ambulance services in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Adults treated for an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were included. Patients were ineligible if they were pregnant, if they were aged < 16 years, if the cardiac arrest had been caused by anaphylaxis or life-threatening asthma, or if adrenaline had already been given. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised to either adrenaline (1 mg) or placebo in a 1 : 1 allocation ratio by the opening of allocation-concealed treatment packs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was survival to 30 days. The secondary outcomes were survival to hospital admission, survival to hospital discharge, survival at 3, 6 and 12 months, neurological outcomes and health-related quality of life through to 6 months. The economic evaluation assessed the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained from the perspective of the NHS and Personal Social Services. Participants, clinical teams and those assessing patient outcomes were masked to the treatment allocation. RESULTS: From December 2014 to October 2017, 8014 participants were assigned to the adrenaline (n = 4015) or to the placebo (n = 3999) arm. At 30 days, 130 out of 4012 participants (3.2%) in the adrenaline arm and 94 out of 3995 (2.4%) in the placebo arm were alive (adjusted odds ratio for survival 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.97). For secondary outcomes, survival to hospital admission was higher for those receiving adrenaline than for those receiving placebo (23.6% vs. 8.0%; adjusted odds ratio 3.83, 95% confidence interval 3.30 to 4.43). The rate of favourable neurological outcome at hospital discharge was not significantly different between the arms (2.2% vs. 1.9%; adjusted odds ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.68). The pattern of improved survival but no significant improvement in neurological outcomes continued through to 6 months. By 12 months, survival in the adrenaline arm was 2.7%, compared with 2.0% in the placebo arm (adjusted odds ratio 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.92). An adjusted subgroup analysis did not identify significant interactions. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for adrenaline was estimated at £1,693,003 per quality-adjusted life-year gained over the first 6 months after the cardiac arrest event and £81,070 per quality-adjusted life-year gained over the lifetime of survivors. Additional economic analyses estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for adrenaline at £982,880 per percentage point increase in overall survival and £377,232 per percentage point increase in neurological outcomes over the first 6 months after the cardiac arrest. LIMITATIONS: The estimate for survival with a favourable neurological outcome is imprecise because of the small numbers of patients surviving with a good outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Adrenaline improved long-term survival, but there was no evidence that it significantly improved neurological outcomes. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year exceeds the threshold of £20,000-30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year usually supported by the NHS. FUTURE WORK: Further research is required to better understand patients' preferences in relation to survival and neurological outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and to aid interpretation of the trial findings from a patient and public perspective. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN73485024 and EudraCT 2014-000792-11. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 25. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cardiac arrest is a medical emergency that happens when the heart suddenly stops pumping effectively. When cardiac arrest happens, awareness is lost within seconds. If emergency treatment is not started quickly, the person will die. The first treatments of cardiac arrest involve pressing on the chest, giving rescue breaths and defibrillation (electric shocks applied to the heart). If these treatments do not work, ambulance paramedics use a drug called adrenaline to try to restart the heart. Although this treatment has been used for many years, some recent research suggests that it may cause more harm than good. In this research study, we compared the effects of giving adrenaline with the effects of not giving adrenaline to people who had a cardiac arrest in the community. The research showed that adrenaline was effective at restarting the heart, so more people survived long enough to be admitted to hospital. Thirty days later, 130 out of 4012 patients (3.2%) who received adrenaline and 94 out of 3995 (2.4%) who did not receive adrenaline were alive. However, adrenaline did not improve the number of patients who went home from hospital having made a good recovery and were able to care for themselves. The evidence suggests that adrenaline represents a poor use of NHS funds on cost-effectiveness grounds. In a community survey, 95% of people who responded thought that long-term survival with good brain function was more important than just being alive. Further research exploring the opinions of patients and the public will help to understand the results of this research for the NHS.

Multivariate Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models for the Analysis of Clinical Trial-Based Cost-Effectiveness Data.

Economic evaluations conducted alongside randomized controlled trials are a popular vehicle for generating high-quality evidence on the incremental cost-effectiveness of competing health care interventions. Typically, in these studies, resource use (and by extension, economic costs) and clinical (or preference-based health) outcomes data are collected prospectively for trial participants to estimate the joint distribution of incremental costs and incremental benefits associated with the intervention. In this article, we extend the generalized linear mixed-model framework to enable simultaneous modeling of multiple outcomes of mixed data types, such as those typically encountered in trial-based economic evaluations, taking into account correlation of outcomes due to repeated measurements on the same individual and other clustering effects. We provide new wrapper functions to estimate the models in Stata and R by maximum and restricted maximum quasi-likelihood and compare the performance of the new routines with alternative implementations across a range of statistical programming packages. Empirical applications using observed and simulated data from clinical trials suggest that the new methods produce broadly similar results as compared with Stata's merlin and gsem commands and a Bayesian implementation in WinBUGS. We highlight that, although these empirical applications primarily focus on trial-based economic evaluations, the new methods presented can be generalized to other health economic investigations characterized by multivariate hierarchical data structures.

Cost-effectiveness of adrenaline for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: The 'Prehospital Assessment of the Role of Adrenaline: Measuring the Effectiveness of Drug Administration In Cardiac Arrest' (PARAMEDIC2) trial showed that adrenaline improves overall survival, but not neurological outcomes. We sought to determine the within-trial and lifetime health and social care costs and benefits associated with adrenaline, including secondary benefits from organ donation. METHODS: We estimated the costs, benefits (quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) associated with adrenaline during the 6-month trial follow-up. Model-based analyses explored how results altered when the time horizon was extended beyond 6 months and the scope extended to include recipients of donated organs. RESULTS: The within-trial (6 months) and lifetime horizon economic evaluations focussed on the trial population produced ICERs of £1,693,003 (€1,946,953) and £81,070 (€93,231) per QALY gained in 2017 prices, respectively, reflecting significantly higher mean costs and only marginally higher mean QALYs in the adrenaline group. The probability that adrenaline is cost-effective was less than 1% across a range of cost-effectiveness thresholds. Combined direct economic effects over the lifetimes of survivors and indirect economic effects in organ recipients produced an ICER of £16,086 (€18,499) per QALY gained for adrenaline with the probability that adrenaline is cost-effective increasing to 90% at a £30,000 (€34,500) per QALY cost-effectiveness threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Adrenaline was not cost-effective when only directly related costs and consequences are considered. However, incorporating the indirect economic effects associated with transplanted organs substantially alters cost-effectiveness, suggesting decision-makers should consider the complexity of direct and indirect economic impacts of adrenaline. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN73485024 . Registered on 13 March 2014.

Correction to: Can levosimendan reduce ECMO weaning failure in cardiogenic shock?: a cohort study with propensity score analysis.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Rapid antigen detection and molecular tests for group A streptococcal infections for acute sore throat: systematic reviews and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Sore throat is a common condition caused by an infection of the airway. Most cases are of a viral nature; however, a number of these infections may be caused by the group A Streptococcus bacterium. Most viral and bacterial sore throat infections resolve spontaneously within a few weeks. Point-of-care testing in primary care has been recognised as an emerging technology for aiding targeted antibiotic prescribing for sore throat in cases that do not spontaneously resolve. OBJECTIVE: Systematically review the evidence for 21 point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria and develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of point-of-care tests alongside clinical scoring tools with the cost-effectiveness of clinical scoring tools alone for patients managed in primary care and hospital settings. DATA SOURCES: Multiple electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2019. The following databases were searched in November and December 2018 and searches were updated in March 2019: MEDLINE [via OvidSP (Health First, Rockledge, FL, USA)], MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Daily Update (via OvidSP), EMBASE (via OvidSP), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews [via Wiley Online Library (John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA)], Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (via Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Health Technology Assessment database (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings [via the Web of Science™ (Clarivate Analytics, Philadelphia, PA, USA)] and the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination). REVIEW METHODS: Eligible studies included those of people aged ≥ 5 years presenting with sore throat symptoms, studies comparing point-of-care testing with antibiotic-prescribing decisions, studies of test accuracy and studies of cost-effectiveness. Quality assessment of eligible studies was undertaken. Meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity was carried out for tests with sufficient data. A decision tree model estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. RESULTS: The searches identified 38 studies of clinical effectiveness and three studies of cost-effectiveness. Twenty-six full-text articles and abstracts reported on the test accuracy of point-of-care tests and/or clinical scores with biological culture as a reference standard. In the population of interest (patients with Centor/McIsaac scores of ≥ 3 points or FeverPAIN scores of ≥ 4 points), point estimates were 0.829 to 0.946 for sensitivity and 0.849 to 0.991 for specificity. There was considerable heterogeneity, even for studies using the same point-of-care test, suggesting that is unlikely that any single study will have accurately captured a test's true performance. There is some randomised controlled trial evidence to suggest that the use of rapid antigen detection tests may help to reduce antibiotic-prescribing rates. Sensitivity and specificity estimates for each test in each age group and care setting combination were obtained using meta-analyses where appropriate. Any apparent differences in test accuracy may not be attributable to the tests, and may have been caused by known differences in the studies, latent characteristics or chance. Fourteen of the 21 tests reviewed were included in the economic modelling, and these tests were not cost-effective within the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's cost-effectiveness thresholds. Uncertainties in the cost-effectiveness estimates included model parameter inputs and assumptions that increase the cost of testing, and the penalty for antibiotic overprescriptions. LIMITATIONS: No information was identified for the elderly population or pharmacy setting. It was not possible to identify which test is the most accurate owing to the paucity of evidence. CONCLUSIONS: The systematic review and the cost-effectiveness models identified uncertainties around the adoption of point-of-care tests in primary and secondary care settings. Although sensitivity and specificity estimates are promising, we have little information to establish the most accurate point-of-care test. Further research is needed to understand the test accuracy of point-of-care tests in the proposed NHS pathway and in comparable settings and patient groups. STUDY REGISTRATION: The protocol of the review is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018118653. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 31. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Sore throat is a common condition caused by an infection of the airway. Most cases are viral; however, a small number may be caused by the group A Streptococcus bacterium. Most viral and bacterial sore throat infections resolve spontaneously within a few weeks; however, some may be more serious and require antibiotics. Currently, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance recommends the use of clinical scoring tools to identify patients for whom antibiotic treatment is appropriate. Ideally, a throat swab culture should be obtained to identify the organism causing the infection in cases in which diagnosis is uncertain. However, this takes time, causing potential delays in administering the correct treatment. Point-of-care tests can be administered at or near the site of the patient; therefore, they are much faster. Our review considered evidence for the test accuracy and cost-effectiveness of 21 point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria. We built an economic model, predicting costs and benefits for adults and children in a primary care or hospital setting. The findings will support the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence to make recommendations about the use of these point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria in the NHS in England and Wales. The clinical effectiveness review found 38 relevant studies; of these, 26 reported on the accuracy of point-of-care tests. These studies found wide variation in the accuracy of the tests. The quality of the evidence was weak and there was little information on some of the 21 tests. As the studies were all so different, it was not possible to identify which test is the most accurate. The economic model found considerable uncertainty about how costs and benefits would change if point-of-care tests were introduced in different care settings. Further research is needed to see whether or not point-of-care testing provides value for money.

Can levosimendan reduce ECMO weaning failure in cardiogenic shock?: a cohort study with propensity score analysis.

BACKGROUND: Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) has been increasingly used over the last decade in patients with refractory cardiogenic shock. ECMO weaning can, however, be challenging and lead to circulatory failure and death. Recent data suggest a potential benefit of levosimendan for ECMO weaning. We sought to further investigate whether the use of levosimendan could decrease the rate of ECMO weaning failure in adult patients with refractory cardiogenic shock. METHODS: We performed an observational single-center cohort study. All patients undergoing VA-ECMO from January 2012 to December 2018 were eligible and divided into two groups: group levosimendan and group control (without levosimendan). The primary endpoint was VA-ECMO weaning failure defined as death during VA-ECMO treatment or within 24 h after VA-ECMO removal. Secondary outcomes were mortality at day 28 and at 6 months. The two groups were compared after propensity score matching. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Two hundred patients were analyzed (levosimendan group: n = 53 and control group: n = 147). No significant difference was found between groups on baseline characteristics except for ECMO duration, which was longer in the levosimendan group (10.6 ± 4.8 vs. 6.5 ± 4.7 days, p < 0.001). Levosimendan administration started 6.6 ± 5.4 days on average following ECMO implantation. After matching of 48 levosimendan patients to 78 control patients, the duration of ECMO was similar in both groups. The rate of weaning failure was 29.1% and 35.4% in levosimendan and control groups, respectively (OR: 0.69, 95%CI: 0.25-1.88). No significant difference was found between groups for all secondary outcomes. CONCLUSION: Levosimendan did not improve the rate of successful VA-ECMO weaning in patients with refractory cardiogenic shock. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04323709 .

Usual care and a self-management support programme versus usual care and a relaxation programme for people living with chronic headache disorders: a randomised controlled trial protocol (CHESS).

INTRODUCTION: Chronic headaches are poorly diagnosed and managed and can be exacerbated by medication overuse. There is insufficient evidence on the non-pharmacological approaches to helping people living with chronic headaches. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Chronic Headache Education and Self-management Study is a pragmatic randomised controlled trial to test the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a self-management education support programme on top of usual care for patients with chronic headaches against a control of usual care and relaxation. The intervention is a 2-day group course based on education, personal reflection and a cognitive behavioural approach, plus a nurse-led one-to-one consultation and follow-up over 8 weeks. We aim to recruit 689 participants (356 to the intervention arm and 333 to the control) from primary care and self-referral in London and the Midlands. The trial is powered to show a difference of 2.0 points on the Headache Impact Test, a patient-reported outcome measure at 12 months post randomisation. Secondary outcomes include health related quality of life, self-efficacy, social activation and engagement, anxiety and depression and healthcare utilisation. Outcomes are being measured at 4, 8 and 12 months. Cost-effectiveness will be expressed in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This trial will provide data on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a self-management support programme for chronic headaches. The results will inform commissioning of services and clinical practice. North West - Greater Manchester East Research Ethics Committee have approved the trial. The current protocol version is 3.6 date 7 March 2019. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN79708100.